羅伯特清崎，2009.12.29
"這是最好的年代，也是最糟的年代。"
-- 狄更斯 雙城記
蕭條結束了嗎？快樂的日子是否又來臨了？意譯狄更斯這個名句，我的回答是，"對有準備的人，2010年是最好的年代。對其他很多人，2010年是最差的年代。"
接下來是我的一些預測，我也把我的理由寫在後面...
預測一；房地產還會再崩潰一次
上圖是美國房貸重置表。說簡單一點，房貸重置就是房貸到期的意思。房貸到期後一般來說，我們會重新簽約再貸一次，不過，現在可不是一般時期啊...圖中有幾個時機點值得注意。
1. 2008年九月，房貸重置達到一個高峰，在那個月有 350 億美元的房貸會到期。而這個月也是本次金融海嘯開始的時候。當人們無法再次把錢貸出來而必須違約時，股市和金融市場就會崩盤。
2. 颱風眼：2009年夏天的房貸重置數很低，每個月大概只有 150 億美元。這也是樂觀主義者看到的經濟復甦，事實上這個復甦不過是颱風眼中的寧靜。到了2010年，如我所看到，我們會進入另一半的暴風圈裡。到2011年末，房貸重置會爬升到最高峰，將近400億美元一個月，而這個房貸風暴要到2012年才會過去。
3. 這個風暴的前半場大概就是次貸違約所造成，而後半場的房貸風暴將會襲擊許多正常的房貸戶。所以問題就是，這些信用還好的房貸戶能撐過這個風暴嗎？下一個房貸違約將會是那些大房子了嗎？
4. 在美國有超過四千萬人擁有兩棟以上房產，這些人現在還有辦法同時繳兩份房貸嗎？房貸要重新簽約時也負擔得起嗎？
5. 因為房價大跌，許多人發現他們欠銀行的房貸已經超過房屋的現值。銀行會繼續這麼仁慈，忍受抵押品價值不足嗎？
6. 把房子當提款機的時代已經結束。沒有了用房貸借出來的大筆錢可花，零售業以及零售業相關房產都受到很大打擊，購物中心麻煩可大了。因為店主關門(永久性的)，商店街整條空掉。這會連鎖影響到辦公室、倉儲業、以及其他商用不動產。
所以我的預測：很明顯的，如果你是跳樓大拍賣的買方，這真是最好的年代。如果你是個賣方，這真是個最糟的年代。
還有幾件事我會在2010年密切觀察：
1. 中國會崩潰嗎？美國的崩潰也給中國重重一擊。中國裁掉了幾千萬的勞工。只有靠大有為政府的強力紓困方案才讓經濟支撐住。中國的泡泡遲早也會破...但它會在2010年就破嗎？只有等時間告訴我們。
2. 如果美國停止向中國進口貨品，中國也會停止向世界各國進口原料。這同時會影響到亞洲、澳洲、巴西、以及其他原物料的出口國。
3. FED主席柏南克正設法用新債把有毒債務取代掉。他用這種方式保護大銀行家，最終會把美國變成一個僵屍國家。不景氣就算過去，美國也會進入一個所謂"新蕭條"的時代。這個時代有錢人會變成非常有錢，而其他人都變得更窮(譯按：小英的故事要真實上演啦)。稅金會把所有薪水階級都吸乾。
4. 美元會變得更弱勢。如果美元變強，我們的外銷會因為產品太貴而降低，這也導致失業率上升。
5. 赤次會升高。為富人設計的紓困案將會毀了我們的經濟。
6. 以色列可能會攻打伊朗。以色列不可能容忍伊朗發展核能源，既使伊朗宣稱那完全是和平用途。如果攻擊成真，石油價格會炒翻天。
7. 迴光返照。這一波的股市狂飆很可能只是一個迴光返照。如果道瓊指數跌破6500，可能會跌到5000才會停止。
最好的年代
我知道我聽起來像一位痛苦的悲觀者。我知道我的預測對大多數人來說都是壞消息。不過，對其他來來說，壞消息就是好消息。
對有準備的人來說，下面是一些激勵的好消息：
預測二：在2010年，金、銀、石油都還是持續會是安穩的投資。
YEAR GOLD SILVER
2000 $ 273 $ 4.57
2001 $ 279 $ 4.57
2002 $ 348 $ 4.78
2003 $ 416 $ 5.92
2004 $ 438 $ 6.79
2005 $ 518 $ 8.80
2006 $ 638 $12.78
2007 $ 838 $14.77
2008 $ 882 $11.33
2009 $1100 (approx) $17.50 (approx)
2009年，道瓊漲了約 18趴，金漲了約 25%，銀漲了約 50%。
到了2010年尾，我預期金價大概會是 $1775每盎司，銀大概在 $24 每盎司，石油每桶 $85。如果以色列打伊朗，這些預測數字還會被吹到天邊。
預測三：下一個崩潰的市場將是商用不動產。(譯按，我不同意這點，至少在台灣不是，因為財富集中)
有正向現金流的房產將會更值得。對那些有現金而且能信用貸款的人，2010到2012年將會是一個房地產吃到飽buffet。
我的個人投資組合
就如同我在2002年所說的，"你要能熬過2010年才能稱作準備好了。"
下列事情是我所做的準備(譯按：只有第六、第七點值得看)：
1. 在1997年開辦富爸爸公司。這家公司零負債而且帶給我很高的現金流。
2. 2009年是我在房地產收穫最豐的一年。FED發出大把資金、退休基金到處尋找可投資案件。我的房產公司得到幾千萬美元的資金，用來購買破產的不動產與動工到一半的基地。新建案又有利可圖了，因為人工、原料、土地都降價而且政府還給40年期低利無追索權的貸款。人們總還是需要個屋頂遮在頭上。
3. 我的石油開採事業很順利。我們挖了三個油井，有兩個冒出石油來。政府對石油開採的稅率仍然很大方，就算沒挖出油的油井也一樣。所以既使經濟崩潰了，我們還可以燒石油。
4. 我在2007年把 90%的股票變現。如果 FED 升息，股市和房市都會垮下來。
5. 我在 1996 到 2004 年間買了不少黃金白銀。
6. 既然 FED 印了數以十兆計的鈔票，現金會變垃圾，存錢的人都變輸家(cash is trash, savers is losers)。只要我有多的錢，我就會拿去買黃金、白銀和石油。
7. 在一個零利率的環境，欠錢的人才是贏家。(譯按：我演講時說過，盡量借、拼命借...)前提當然是你欠的是好債，那種你的房客會幫你還的債。
結論
幾年前，日本是世界金融的王者，日本是世界第二大經濟體，一直到泡沫在1990破滅為止。日本的預算在1993年開始變成赤字。從那時候起，每年的赤字都是 GDP 的 5.4%左右。造成的結果是，現在日本的政府債務是 GDP 的 200%。美國正在走日本的覆轍，而中國還跟隨在美國之後。
我們將看不到很大的通膨因為 FED 無法印出足夠鈔票填補信用泡沫破滅的損失。同時，工廠有太多過剩產能，也就是說民生物品的價格會很低而失業率會很高。相反的，我們將看到金、銀、石油以及某些股票、某些地區的房地產會產生通膨(譯按：資產通膨，民生通縮!)還有食物也會通膨，不是因為價值提高而是因為錢的購買力下降。
歡迎來到新蕭條時代。而我希望這個時代是你最好的時代。
本文轉譯自 YAHOO! Finance，http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/211091;_ylt=AoOb3AfapyI84OYIUmqsGQIzt9IF;_ylu=X3oDMTE5MmkwcHI3BHBvcwMxBHNlYwNyaWdodFJlY2VudEFydA RzbGsDMjAxMHRoZWJlc3Rv
原文轉貼如下：
Robert Kiyosaki Why the Rich Get Richer
2010: The Best of Times or the Worst?
Posted on Tuesday, December 29, 2009, 12:00AM
“It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.”
– Charles Dickens
Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”
The following are a few of my predictions and reasons behind them…
Prediction #1: The real estate market will crash again.
Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:
1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.
2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.
3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?
4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?
5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?
6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.
My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.
Other things I am watching for in 2010:
1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.
2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.
4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.
5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.
6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.
7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.
The Best of Times
I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.
The following are the bright spots for people who are prepared.
Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010.
The following recaps the year-end prices of gold and silver:
YEAR GOLD SILVER
2000 $ 273 $ 4.57
2001 $ 279 $ 4.57
2002 $ 348 $ 4.78
2003 $ 416 $ 5.92
2004 $ 438 $ 6.79
2005 $ 518 $ 8.80
2006 $ 638 $12.78
2007 $ 838 $14.77
2008 $ 882 $11.33
2009 $1100 (approx) $17.50 (approx)
In 2009, the Dow rose approximately 18%. Gold rose approximately 25%. Silver rose approximately 50%.
By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.
Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.
Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.
My Personal Investments
As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”
The following are things I have done to prepare myself:
1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income.
2. 2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects. Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.
3. My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes. Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.
4. I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.
5. I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.
6. With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.
7. In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.
In Conclusion
A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.
We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.
Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.
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